Researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, specialist on Azerbaijan, Alexander Karavaev, in an interview with Turan, commented on the possible course of events in the region after the statement by US President J. Biden about the events of 1915 in the Ottoman Empire.
Question: Societies in Turkey, Azerbaijan and Armenia are actively discussing Biden’s statement about the 106-year-old event. Does this statement have any practical meaning other than emotion?
Answer: It is strange to me that in Armenia and Turkey, a ritual phrase is perceived as an incantation. It is known that the Armenians are waiting for further prospects: compensation, legal consequences. However, as far as I understand, Turkey is not the legal successor to the Ottoman Empire.
After all, such statements are common in the world. The Greek parliament periodically writes to the Bundestag, the Baltics to the State Duma, Central Asia accuses Moscow of murders during the Turkestan war.
The topic of Armenian exile, which became essentially ritual in the 20th century, strengthened the allied relations of NATO members – Turkey and the United States. Then this question stuck like something put on hold, just in case. In principle, all this is empty and will add little to Turkish-American relations, but rather exacerbate the accumulated contradictions.
– The Armenians demand to force Baku to withdraw its troops from Nagorno-Karabakh, which is unlikely. However, US economic sanctions are possible. How to proceed?
– Of course, there will be no war between Azerbaijan and the United States. Purely hypothetically, economic pressure is possible. What should Azerbaijan do?
1. Not to take steps on their own, showing partial solidarity with Turkey. Who knows how Ankara will answer – it is not necessary for Baku to repeat everything.
2. Buy out American stakes in oil fields. So, production at ACG – ExxonMobil (6.79%), and in the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline from ConocoPhillips (2.5%).
3. Ilham Aliyev’s decree banning investments in the US economy and the withdrawal of existing assets by the end of the year. By the end of 2020, Baku’s investments in the United States amounted to $ 171.073 million, which is by 3.2 times more than in 2019 (!).
Of course, this will undermine the situation in a certain way, because the United States is the third most important investor in Azerbaijan (10.5% of the total investment – $ 475.245 million, an increase of 25.1%). However, let us not forget that up to a third of these volumes is Azerbaijani money previously withdrawn to the United States.
Another option is to reduce the share of dollars in the basket of the SOFAS Fund by redirecting investments to the rapidly growing Asian markets.
Source: Turan News Agency