OPEC lowers forecast on non-OPEC oil supply

Non-OPEC oil supply was revised down by 0.14 million barrels per day from the cartel’s previous report for June 2016, averaging 56.03 million barrels per day in 2016, says OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for July 2016.

The main reasons for this negative revision were the lower output of Canada (in 2Q16, driven by wildfires), US crude oil, other OECD Europe (mainly Italy), Colombia, Australia and China, all of which were partially offset by higher-than-expected growth in Mexico, the UK, Brazil, Congo, Russia and Azerbaijan, says the MOMR.

In its previous report, the cartel forecasted a decline by 0.74 million barrels per day – to 56.4 million barrels per day for 2016.

Non-OPEC oil supply in 2017 is projected to decline by 0.11 million barrels per day, to average 55.92 million barrels per day, according to the report for July 2016. Brazil, Canada, Africa other, Congo and Malaysia are the main drivers of growth, while Mexico, the US, Norway, Colombia, China, Kazakhstan and Russia are the main reasons for declines, according to the report.

The report also says that the 2017 forecast is subject to many uncertainties.

Non-OPEC oil supply averaged 57.14 million barrels per day in 2015 (compared to 55.67 million barrels per day in 2014), according to OPEC.

Source: Trend