The prospect of a Russian invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 16 was always overhyped, APA reports citing Politico.

“Analysts said that the obsession with Feb. 16 — that is, today — distracted attention from actual key dates.

“After Feb. 20 was always the more important time frame,” said Michael Kofman, an expert on Russia’s military at the CNA think tank. “We’re looking to see what Russian forces do then.”

That’s when the largest military exercise since the Cold War is scheduled to end, after which leaders in Moscow and Minsk promised Putin’s troops would head home.

Kofman said where Russian forces do or don’t go after Feb. 20 will provide insight into Putin’s real intentions. “It’s a useful date to see if they’re lying or they’re not. When someone lies, it tells you a lot,” he said. Observers should track if troops actually head back to their barracks or are repositioned elsewhere near Ukraine’s border, Kofman continued.

There’s another reason why Feb. 20 looms large: The Munich Security Conference concludes that day. The annual “Davos of defense” gathering is a major event, featuring in-person participation from leaders like Vice President Kamala Harris, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Feb. 20 also happens to be the last day of the Winter Olympics in Beijing, leading some to speculate that Putin wouldn’t launch an invasion before the closing ceremonies to keep Chinese leader Xi Jinping happy,” noted in the Article.

Source: Azeri-Press News Agency