Due to the growth of the non-oil and gas component in the medium term, the share of Azerbaijan’s oil and gas GDP will exceed 35 percent, Deputy Head of the Market Analysis Department of the Russian Gazprombank Gulnara Haydarshina told Trend.
According to Haydarshina, in the coming year, with the updated baseline scenario of the average Brent oil price at $81.7, the economy will grow by 4.5 percent, taking into account the exhaustion of the effect of the low base of the crisis in 2020.
“In addition, even under a conservative, unlikely scenario of an average Brent oil price of $60, the Azerbaijani economy will maintain positive growth rates in the coming year. This will be facilitated by a recovery in domestic demand, an increase in the physical volumes of gas exports due to the launch of the TAP gas pipeline, as well as new non-oil and gas growth drivers,” she said.
Haydarshina stressed that the oil and gas sector of Azerbaijan will continue to support the economy in the medium term in the context of the recovery of global demand for hydrocarbons and the consistent relaxation of OPEC + restrictions.
“Earlier it was reported, the oil and gas sector remains key for the Azerbaijani economy even in the context of active measures to diversify it through the development of non-oil and gas industries (primarily agriculture, metallurgy, as well as food, light, chemical and automotive industries). After falling to 38 percent in the crisis year of 2020, amid weak external demand in 2021, the share of the oil and gas sector in the total value added of industries may recover to 41 percent,” Haydarshina said.
“Despite a slight reduction, thanks to the growth of the non-oil and gas component in the medium term, the share of oil and gas GDP will exceed 35 percent. It is noted that the share of oil and gas exports in its total volume remains close to 90 percent,” she added.
Source: Trend News Agency