Scores of people are wondering about results of the parliamentary elections scheduled to be held on June 20 in Armenia. But no survey gives an accurate picture. In Armenia where there is no school of opinion polls, studies of this sort provide opposite results.

Polls results say that the rating of the “Armenia” bloc led by Kocharyan is growing while the electoral rating of the “Civil Contract” Party under the leadership of Pashinyan is falling. The latter is discredited by the defeat in the war and subsequent actions following which the demand for a person who is contrary to everything – Robert Kocharyan — is growing. Hoever, Kocharyan has not yet fully recovered from the discredit inflicted on him during the events of 2018, “writes Yerevan sociologist Hrant Mikaelyan.

This notwithstanding, Azerbaijani experts are forced to make conclusions from the data of Armenian sociologists.

In order to win in Armenia, a candidate does not need to get the largest number of votes but to get as many (54%) to form a government, “writes political analyst Farhad Mammadov.

Pashinyan may get the most votes but will he be able to collect the long-awaited 54%?! The current polls give Pashinyan 24-28% but in these polls 35-45% are either undecided or will not vote at all. The votes are counted only by those who participated in the polls. In other words, under the current scenario, 24-28% of all citizens may end up with 48-54% of the participants.

Iyt should noted that much will depend on how many votes will be collected by Kocharyan’s second-most popular bloc and whether someone else will be able to pass the threshold. If two or three more parties follow Kocharyan, then the votes collected by Pashinyan will lose their significance, since all the others who have passed to the parliament will form a coalition. Vanetsyan, Tsarukyan, Armen Sarkisyan, and the Babajanyan-Shirinyan bloc have chances as well. Kocharyan has more chances to be blocked than Pashinyan.

Note that the number of those engaged in the voting will also be important for understanding how active the Armenian society is and pinning its hopes on the future. In March, there were just over 50% of them, that is, nearly half of the Armenian society did not believe anyone, and they are the ones to vote with their feet ravaging the country.

Finally, Pashinyan’s supporters will go to falsifications, and his opponents will also not skimp on distributing money, since Kocharyan has an abundance of finances. Much will depend on fixing violations and visual content. Also, much will depend on the number of rallies of supporters of the government and Kocharyan on the next day. If Kocharyan can gather a critical mass of citizens, he will go to an indefinite action or to a wall-to-wall provocation.

Of importance here is the opinion of the army which is under manual control of Moscow, and the frequent negotiations between the defense ministers of Russia and Armenia demonstrate how much Russia is involved in the process of managing the generals. The army was not involved in February developments, as Pashinyan was legitimate but now, in case of falsifications, the actions of the military will be justified by the necessity of legitimacy restoration. Again, much will be dependent upon the street. –0—

Source: Turan New Agency