Baku:Azerbaijan is projecting that the assets of its State Oil Fund (SOFAZ) will reach $78.3 billion by the year 2030, contingent on stable oil prices.

According to Azeri-Press news agency, a decline in oil prices below the projected level could adversely affect oil and gas revenues, the fiscal balance of the consolidated budget, and the assets of SOFAZ. This information is detailed in the 2027 State Budget Package of the Republic of Azerbaijan, which is currently under discussion at the Economic Policy, Industry and Entrepreneurship Committee of the Milli Majlis.

The document emphasizes the importance of analyzing the potential effects of global energy market price fluctuations, production prospects, and geopolitical developments on fiscal indicators. To account for uncertainties, various risk scenarios have been developed, considering oil prices deviating by $10, $15, and $20 above and below the baseline forecast. The impact of these different oil price scenarios for 2027-2030 on the consolidated budget balance, budget revenues, and SOFAZ assets has been calculated.

Under the baseline scenario, SOFAZ's assets are expected to approach $78.3 billion in 2030. However, under extreme scenarios, this figure could vary by approximately $8 billion in either direction. The fiscal break-even oil price is projected to reach $65 per barrel in 2030, which is significantly lower than the current figure of $85.