Real economic growth in Azerbaijan in 2022 is forecasted to reach 3.9 percent, Trend reports on Dec. 30 via the country’s Central Bank (CBA).
According to the CBA, next year, global economic growth will continue amid risks and growing uncertainty over new strains of the COVID-19 virus.
The world economy will grow 4.9 percent in 2022, according to an October report from the International Monetary Fund. The economic growth processes in developed and developing countries are expected to take place at different rates, depending on the scale of COVID-19 vaccination, the duration of the constraints and the sustainability of the stimulus measures.
Economic growth in developed countries is projected to equal 4.5 percent and in developing countries – 5.1 percent.
Through various stimulus programs, fiscal support and monetary policy are expected to change depending on economic growth, employment and inflation, and the rise in global commodity prices will relatively slow down as global supply increases.
The growing problems of global warming will possibly affect world food prices next year.
According to the forecast, world oil prices will be formed next year under the influence of global economic activity, geopolitical factors and decisions taken within the framework of OPEC ++. The consensus price for 2022 is estimated by major brain centers (IMF, World Bank, US Energy Agency, Standard Chartered, Fitch, Barclays, and others) at $70.9 per barrel.
Overall, global oil demand is projected to continue to grow in 2022.
The dynamics of world prices for raw materials will remain one of the factors affecting inflation in the world. It’s possible that inflation will be high in some developed and developing countries the upcoming year mainly due to pressure from world food prices and rising energy prices for importers.
Despite short-term disruptions in the global supply chain, global trade is projected to grow by 6.7 percent in 2022. Trade in services is expected to recover at a slower pace than trade in goods.
It’s also expected that next year the expansion of global demand and the dynamics of oil prices, the macroeconomic situation with trading partners, the dynamics of non-oil exports will become the main factors affecting the balance of payments of Azerbaijan.
According to estimates, in 2022 the current account of the oil balance of payments, even at the level of $50, should have a surplus of nearly four percent of GDP. The growth of the real sector of the Azerbaijani economy is projected to continue in 2022. Real economic growth in Azerbaijan in 2022, according to the forecast, will be 3.9 percent, and in non-oil sector – 4.9 percent.
Easing social exclusion measures, continuation of stimulating macroeconomic policies, gradual acceleration of private investment growth, reconstruction and rehabilitation works in the territories liberated from Armenian occupation [in the 2020 second Karabakh war], countercyclical fiscal policy and macroeconomic stability form the basis of economic growth forecasts. In 2022, government demand will also play an important role in supporting economic activity.
Source: Trend News Agency