The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) has revised its global oil supply forecast:PEC (10) participants in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC), and non-OPEC+ producers.

According to Trend News Agency, the forecast also incorporates the recent decision by eight OPEC+ members to extend their voluntary production cuts of 2.2 mb/d until the end of November 2024. The cuts will be phased out gradually from December 2024 through November 2025. As a result of this extension, OIES has reduced its global oil supply forecast by 90 kb/d for 2024 and 320 kb/d for 2025. OPEC+ crude is expected to increase by 1.5 mb/d in 2025, driven primarily by OPEC producers (+1.37 mb/d), following a 1.1 mb/d contraction in 2024.

Russia, Iraq, and Kazakhstan have submitted compensation plans for 2.6 mb/d of overproduced volumes, pledging to rectify the excess by September 2025, which could limit OPEC+ production growth in 2025. Meanwhile, non-OPEC+ crude growth is projected to slow to 820 kb/d in 2024 and 1 mb/d in 2025, down
from 1.6 mb/d in 2023. US crude production is expected to grow by 250-300 kb/d in both years, significantly lower than the 1.1 mb/d growth seen in 2023. Global natural gas liquids (NGLs) and other liquids are forecasted to grow by 680 kb/d in 2024, with a more modest increase of 170 kb/d in 2025.