Kazakhstan: Kazakhstan’s current account deficit is anticipated to reach approximately four percent of GDP by 2025, as stated by the International Monetary Fund following its 2025 Article IV consultation, Trend reports via the fund. The IMF highlighted strong domestic demand, including activity from state-owned enterprises, as a continuing pressure on external balances. Despite these pressures, the economic growth of Kazakhstan remains steady. The fund projects GDP to rise slightly above six percent in 2025, driven by increased oil output and solid consumption levels.

According to Trend News Agency, inflation is expected to stay high, ending this year near 13 percent and remaining elevated into 2026 due to tax hikes and upcoming utility tariff adjustments. The IMF also pointed out that fiscal policy remains loose, with the non-oil deficit projected to exceed eight percent of GDP in 2025, as the government leans on substantial transfers from the National Fund.

Key risks to Kazakhstan’s economic outlook include slower growth in major trading partners, a decline in oil prices, and potential disruptions to oil exports through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. Additional risks include possible delays in infrastructure projects and slower fiscal tightening, which could further impact the economic outlook.

According to the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK), the current account deficit for the first half of 2025 amounted to $3.9 billion. The NBK forecasts the current account deficit to be 3.8 percent of GDP in 2025 and to remain above 3.5 percent through 2027, highlighting a structural imbalance between export earnings and import demand. In 2024, the current account deficit stood at 1.3 percent.