President of the European Council Charles Michel held telephone talks with the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan around the situation in the region. After a conversation with Michel, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan agreed to meet in Brussels at the EU Eastern Partnership Summit on December 15.
Why did Pashinyan disrupt a meeting with Aliyev and Putin in Moscow, and agreed to a meeting with Aliyev in Brussels? The format of the meeting and the mediator are important, said the former director of the Center for Strategic Studies under the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, political scientist Farhad Mammadov. In an interview with Turan, he shared his thoughts on the competition between the Moscow and Brussels formats, for primacy in the final settlement of the Karabakh problem.
Two statements signed by three leaders (Aliyev, Putin, Pashinyan), during the year from November 2020 to November 2021, were Moscow’s monopoly fiefdoms and did not bring political progress in solving the problem. The United States and France through the OSCE Minsk Group tried to make their contribution, but the Russian monopoly did not allow them to go beyond confirming the two statements adopted without them, Mammadov said.
During this year, other participants appeared in Azerbaijani-Armenian relations – the United States and Georgia facilitated the exchange of saboteurs for maps of minefields, and in the fall, Iran tried to contribute. But Moscow remained the only real mediator, since with its participation business meetings of Azerbaijanis and Armenians took place in various government formats. Negotiations in business groups went in two directions: opening communications and establishing boundaries.
Mammadov believes that Moscow, which has set itself the goal of being the only organizer of events, can organize a meeting with the adoption of documents in these areas until December 15. And Brussels, thus, will become the place of a formal meeting between Aliyev and Pashinyan.
According to Mammadov’s observations, Pashinyan is interested in withdrawing the negotiation process from the Russian monopoly. He seeks to get out of the Russian format and translate the negotiations of the OSCE Minsk Group. “Dilute the role of Russia and Turkey, gain time.”
The political scientist draws attention to the fact that in the days of the recent battle on the border, the heads of the United States and France did not call Pashinyan, the head of the EU was active.
“In the very near future, Azerbaijan needs recognition of territorial integrity on the part of Armenia – delimitation and demarcation of the border; opening of communications in Nakhchivan – Zangezur corridor; withdrawal of the remnants of the Armenian Armed Forces from the zone of temporary presence of Russian peacekeeping forces in Azerbaijan. Through what mediator this will be achieved – an important question The main thing is that Armenia should agree to this. If Yerevan does not want to make decisions through Moscow’s mediation, and Russia does not see any prospects in putting pressure on an ally, then EU mediation is appropriate. which will allow generating positive content for a constructive spiral,” Mammadov said.
He states the practical experience of our relations with Armenia for 30 years: all decisions were made only after Azerbaijan used force. Dragging out and entangling the process by the Armenians is fraught with new battles. For this, Baku has a military force, shown during the capture of up to 20 saboteurs.
Baku also has the opportunity to use non-military tools, which we saw when 5 saboteurs were issued in advance after Pashinyan’s constructive speech at the CIS summit, Farhad Mammadov summed up.
Source: Turan News Agency