Baku: The conflict around Iran could create additional export opportunities and budget revenues for Azerbaijan amid rising energy prices, APA-Economics reports, citing the international rating agency Fitch Ratings.

According to Azeri-Press News Agency, the agency's assessment indicates that if energy prices remain elevated for an extended period, this could result in increased export and fiscal revenues for hydrocarbon exporters located outside the Gulf region, including Azerbaijan, Angola, Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Gabon, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, and Congo.

Fitch highlights that Azerbaijan has one of the highest shares of fossil fuel exports in GDP among selected developing countries, with net fossil fuel exports accounting for 28.8% of GDP. Additionally, the agency notes that in 2024, the volume of fossil fuel subsidies in Azerbaijan is estimated to be approximately 5.5% of GDP.

Fitch also warns that instability within Iran could lead to Azerbaijan, Iraq, and Turkiye being affected by a potential influx of refugees from Iran. According to the agency's baseline scenario, if the actual closure of the Strait of Hormuz lasts for less than one month and the region's oil infrastructure does not suffer significant damage, the impact on the credit ratings of developing countries will be limited.