Azerbaijan: Azerbaijan's economy is projected to grow by 2.2% in 2026, surpassing the 1.4% growth forecast for 2025, as reported by Fitch Ratings. The agency attributes this growth to the stabilization of gas production, despite a decline in oil output, and notes that the likelihood of significant disruptions in energy supply remains low.

According to Azeri-Press News Agency, Fitch Ratings indicated that military operations in Iran are impacting regional economies, primarily through increased energy and logistics costs. These factors could elevate inflation risks and lead to a broader external deficit. The agency highlighted that the impact will be more pronounced in energy-importing countries such as Armenia and Georgia. However, high reserves and minimal exchange rate pressures in these countries help to mitigate short-term risks.

Fitch also pointed out that rising global energy prices have the potential to accelerate inflation. Nonetheless, the presence of positive real interest rates in the region provides central banks with additional flexibility to manage economic conditions.