Baku: Global coal demand is projected to slightly decline by 2030 as competition with renewable energy sources, natural gas, and nuclear power intensifies, according to the 2025 edition of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) annual market report. The report, titled “Coal 2025,” provides insights into current market dynamics and offers forecasts for demand, supply, and trade at both global and regional levels through 2030.

According to Azerbaijan State News Agency, the report highlights that global coal demand is set to rise by 0.5% in 2025, reaching a record 8.85 billion tonnes. However, by the end of the decade, demand is expected to decrease to the levels seen in 2023. This decline is largely attributed to changes in the power sector, which currently consumes two-thirds of global coal. With renewable energy capacity expanding, nuclear power steadily growing, and an influx of liquefied natural gas entering the market, coal-fired power generation is anticipated to decline from 2026 onward.

In China, the world’s largest coal consumer, demand is projected to fall slightly by 2030 as the country accelerates its deployment of renewable energy. Despite this, uncertainties related to China’s economic growth, policy decisions, and energy market dynamics could influence global coal demand.

India is expected to experience the largest absolute increase in coal consumption, with demand rising by an average of 3% per year, resulting in an overall increase of over 200 million tonnes by 2030. Meanwhile, Southeast Asia is forecasted to see the fastest growth in coal demand, with an annual increase of over 4% through 2030.

The report also notes that China’s recent reduction in coal imports due to oversupply and sluggish demand is likely to continue, impacting global coal trade. While metallurgical coal has stronger prospects, particularly due to India’s reliance on imports for its steel industry, the overall outlook for coal demand remains subdued.

Amid this tepid demand outlook, the report anticipates a decline in coal output in most major producer countries through 2030, including China and Indonesia. Conversely, India’s coal production is expected to rise as the country aims to reduce its reliance on imports.