Bangkok:The economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are expected to contract by 4.8% in 2026, amid a significant crisis in the oil market. This forecast was made by Jihad Azour, Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), during a briefing at the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank.

According to Azeri-Press news agency, Azour noted the difficulty in preparing forecasts this year due to the varying directions in which countries in the region are moving. Oil-exporting countries that are directly impacted by the market shock have suffered the most. As a result, the IMF has downgraded their economic forecasts. However, a strong recovery is anticipated, with economic growth projected to reach 9.1% in the following year.

Azour categorized the Gulf countries into three groups based on their ability to redirect trade flows. Iraq, Iran, Qatar, and Kuwait are in the first group, facing significant challenges due to limited bypass options for the Strait of Hormuz and constrained fiscal capacity. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with access to alternative supply routes and substantial reserves, form the second group, better equipped to manage the crisis. Oman, geographically outside the Strait of Hormuz, is in a third category, experiencing less impact from the crisis.