Moscow: Dutch financial giant ING Group has revised down its economic growth forecast for Azerbaijan in 2025 by 0.5 percentage points. The bank now expects Azerbaijan’s real GDP to grow by 4% in the fourth quarter of 2025, down from its previous estimate of 4.5%. The overall forecast for 2025 has also been lowered from 3% to 2.5%. For 2026, ING projects a 2.5% growth rate. The downward revision reflects weak economic performance recorded in the first quarter of 2025.

According to Azeri-Press News Agency, Azerbaijan’s economy grew by just 0.3% in the first quarter of this year, as per the State Statistics Committee. Among other international institutions, SandP Global forecasts 2% growth for 2024, while Fitch Ratings expects 3% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026. Moody’s predicts a consistent annual growth of 2.5%.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) expects Azerbaijan’s economy to grow by 3% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026. The International Monetary Fund forecasts 3.5% and 2.5% respectively. According to the World Bank, growth will be 2.7% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026. The Asian Development Bank anticipates 3.4% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026.