Armenia’s isolation laid bare, this is the title of an article dedicated to the four-day war in Karabakh published by Stratfor, US research-analytical center. The latest conflict is just another reminder of Armenia’s unenviable geopolitical position, the authors of the article mention.
“Armenia’s valuable alliance with Russia has not helped in the last few days amid a flare-up in greatest threat to Armenian security. But Yerevan has no one else to turn to: Turkey is allied with Azerbaijan, and the West is not willing to risk a confrontation with Russia, as shown by its inaction in Georgia. Armenia’s commercial and political ties with Iran might later prove valuable, but at the moment Tehran is in no position to play a meaningful role in the Caucasus or to challenge Russia in any capacity. Someday, though, that could change”, the article reads.
For now, Armenia must to a great extent fend for itself in Nagorno-Karabakh. Unless the simmering tension boils over into a full-blown conflict on par with the war of 1988-1994, the attitudes of Russia and other regional players will likely remain the same, the authors summarize.