New york: International rating agency Fitch Ratings has raised its oil price assumptions for 2026-2027, taking into account the possibility that the Strait of Hormuz may remain effectively closed for longer than previously expected amid the conflict with Iran, 'APA-Economics' reports. The rating agency assumes that the strait will begin reopening around July.

According to Azeri-Press News Agency, Fitch's assessment indicates that before the conflict, 15 million barrels of crude oil and 5 million barrels of oil products were transported daily through the Strait of Hormuz. This accounted for about 20% of global daily oil consumption. While the agency's previous forecast assumed the strait would remain closed for one to two months, it now estimates the closure period at around five months.

According to Fitch's forecast, the price of Brent crude oil will remain in the range of $100-110 per barrel during May-July. Fitch expects prices to decline again to around $70 per barrel by September. Overall, the agency raised its average oil price forecast for 2026 from $70 to $87 per barrel, and for 2027 from $63 to $65 per barrel.

Fitch believes that after the strait reopens, production will return close to normal levels within several weeks, as there has been no material damage to regional oil infrastructure. The agency noted that OPEC could raise production close to maximum capacity to offset volumes lost due to the closure. Before the conflict, the cartel's spare production capacity stood at 3.6 million barrels per day.

At the same time, non-OPEC countries are expected to increase oil supply by about 3 million barrels per day. Of this amount, 1.2 million barrels are expected to come from the US and Latin America, while an additional 1 million barrels are projected from Kazakhstan and Venezuela.

According to Fitch's estimates, global oil inventories amounted to 8.2 billion barrels in January 2026. This volume would be sufficient to replace oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz for more than one year. China alone holds reserves of 1.2 billion barrels, enough to compensate for imports via the Hormuz route for more than eight months.

Source: Azeri-Press News Agency