Baku: The international rating agency Fitch Ratings has maintained its base forecast for oil prices for 2025 at $70 per barrel, APA-Economics reports, citing the rating agency. The agency has also predicted the price of Brent oil at $65 per barrel for 2026-2027, and $60 for 2028 and the medium term, leaving the forecast unchanged.

According to Azeri-Press News Agency, Fitch Ratings projects the price of WTI oil at $65 this year, $60 for 2026-2027, and $57 for 2028 and the medium term. The agency anticipates global oil demand to rise by 700,000-800,000 barrels a day in 2025 and 2026, attributed to slower economic growth and the impact of the energy transition.

The rating agency highlighted that the International Energy Agency forecasts global supply growth of 2.5 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.9 million barrels per day in 2026. This growth is driven by OPEC+’s decision to unwind voluntary cuts and production increases in Brazil, Canada, and the United States. The market is expected to remain oversupplied, with production growth surpassing consumption growth by more than 1 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2026.

Fitch Ratings noted that additional sanctions and tariffs targeting Russian and Iranian oil have introduced a risk premium to oil prices. However, these measures are unlikely to significantly tighten the market, as Russian volumes continue to enter the oversupplied market. The European Union has implemented further sanctions against Russia, including lowering the oil price cap to $47.6 from $60 a barrel and restricting imports of refined oil products derived from Russian oil. The United States has imposed an additional 25% tariff on imports from India due to the country’s purchases of Russian oil and has sanctioned a network of shipping companies and vessels involved in the transportation of Iranian oil.