Despite the announced ceasefire between the united states and iran: APA-Economics reports. This was stated in an analysis by Goldman Sachs.
According to Azeri-Press news agency, the report notes that under the baseline scenario, a six-week disruption in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz followed by a gradual recovery is assumed, however, in reality, despite the ceasefire, flows remain at low levels and negotiations have not resulted in an agreement. Therefore, the risk of a more prolonged disruption in Gulf exports and higher oil prices is being assessed. In a negative scenario, Brent crude prices are expected to remain at $100 in the fourth quarter of 2026, and at $115 in a more severe scenario.
The bank has also raised its inflation forecasts amid the war. Thus, annual inflation in the United States for December 2026 has been increased by 1 percentage point to 3.1%, while core inflation has been raised by 0.3 percentage points to 2.5%. At the same time, inflation is expected to peak at 3.6% in April amid rising gasoline prices.
According to the analysis, the main impact on inflation is related to the pass-through of energy costs. In particular, price increases are occurring more rapidly in airline tickets. The 83% rise in jet fuel prices in the United States since February is intensifying this pressure. In addition, the increase in prices of non-energy Gulf products-especially fertilizers and other raw materials-could lead to an approximately 1.5% rise in food prices.
At the same time, the bank has lowered its forecasts for U.S. economic growth. The consumption growth forecast for the fourth quarter of 2026 has been reduced from 2% to 1.2%. It is noted that rising fuel costs are reducing real incomes and negatively affecting spending, particularly on cars, leisure, and other non-essential items.
It is noted that although the tightening of financial conditions also affects economic activity, this impact is more limited compared to previous wars. While the financial conditions index tightened by 75 basis points at its peak, it currently stands at a net level of 25 basis points.
The authors of the report state that under current conditions, the main risks are related to rising oil prices, strengthening inflationary pressures, and weakening economic growth.