Tel Aviv: The Israel-Iran conflict increases the risks for the sovereign ratings of the countries of the region, said Alexander Perjessy, vice president and leading sovereign risk analyst at the international rating agency Moody’s, APA-Economics reports. He noted that these attacks were the largest-scale and destructive military operation against Tehran since the Iran-Iraq war, targeting Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure, a large gas processing plant in the south, and some civilian facilities. High-ranking Iranian military commanders and several nuclear scientists were also killed. In response, Iran launched ballistic missile strikes on Israel, causing local casualties and some destruction, although strategic infrastructure was not seriously damaged.

According to Azeri-Press News Agency, the agency highlights that Israel has already halted production at two major gas fields and restricted gas exports to Egypt and Jordan. This development poses a threat not only to the regional energy market but also to trade and macroeconomic stability. Moody’s research indicates that the conflict is impacting regional countries through financial and economic channels in three main directions:

1. Increased direct geopolitical and security risks, including economic and infrastructure damage and the risk of repeated attacks.

2. Disruption of trade and energy flows, particularly concerning increased tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, potentially affecting oil and LNG exports from the GCC countries and Israeli gas exports.

3. Deterioration of macroeconomic and financial conditions, with factors such as weakening investor confidence, tightening financial conditions, and closure of airspace.

Moody’s further notes that Iran’s main oil export infrastructure has not yet been targeted, making it unlikely that Tehran will close the Strait of Hormuz, as this would also affect Iran’s own oil exports and could lead to US involvement in the conflict.

Alexander Perjessy mentioned that Moody’s is closely monitoring the situation to adjust the sovereign ratings of Middle Eastern countries accordingly. Moody’s assesses that neither the GCC countries nor other regional actors wish to be involved in this conflict, as their primary focus remains on economic diversification, domestic reforms, and stability. The likelihood of direct US intervention is considered low, except in scenarios such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz or an attack on American military bases in the region.