The netherlands: The Netherlands-based commonspace.eu portal has published an analytical article titled 'The Trump Effect in the South Caucasus: Can the Peace Process Survive a Changing Geopolitical Environment?', authored by Ahmad Alili, Head of Research Department of the Caucasus Policy Analysis Center (CPAC).
According to Azerbaijan State News Agency, the article discusses the factors influencing the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process, highlighting how the geopolitical environment has played a crucial role in facilitating negotiations. The report notes that while internal factors such as constitutional reform in Armenia and border delimitation are significant, the international environment that allowed these discussions to progress is equally important.
The article underscores the paradoxical impact of US President Trump's return to power, which despite being seen as a disruptor of Western alliances, created favorable conditions for diplomatic efforts in the South Caucasus. Trump's foreign policy aimed at reducing tensions with Moscow opened a window for the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace framework to emerge, benefiting from what the article terms as the 'Trump Window.'
The report further explains that Russia, although not thrilled with increased American diplomatic activity in its traditional sphere of influence, opted not to escalate tensions in the South Caucasus during this period. Initiatives such as the TRIPP (Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity) advanced with limited opposition from Russia, which was unexpected.
However, the geopolitical context is evolving. The article notes that US policy has shifted towards stronger support for Ukraine, altering the dynamics that previously facilitated peace negotiations. French President Emmanuel Macron's comments about the US no longer being a neutral mediator but a supporter of Ukraine's sovereignty highlight this shift.
The article also mentions the phrase 'the spirit of Anchorage is evaporating,' referring to the diplomatic atmosphere that characterized past US-Russia interactions. This deterioration affects the South Caucasus, despite improved bilateral relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, where both governments have shown political commitment to negotiations.
Alili notes that the durability of any peace agreement relies on both local political will and the strategic interests of major external actors. The outcome of Armenia's parliamentary elections and differing priorities within Iran's power structures are additional external uncertainties that could impact the peace process.
The article concludes by emphasizing that the future stability of the South Caucasus peace process will depend on Armenia and Azerbaijan's ability to maintain momentum and political ownership amid intensifying geopolitical competition. The period between late 2024 and 2025 may be remembered as a rare moment of alignment between regional and major power interests, facilitating diplomatic progress.