New Delhi: The terrorist attack that took place in April 2025 in the Pahalgam region of Jammu and Kashmir, under Indian control, which claimed the lives of 26 tourists, has further complicated the already fragile security situation in the region. The scale of the attack and its targeting of civilians have been regarded as a serious incident by the international community.
According to Azeri-Press News Agency, the Indian government, without conducting any initial investigation or presenting evidence, claimed that radical armed groups linked to Pakistan were behind the attack. New Delhi’s hasty conclusions have naturally raised certain questions, and the importance of conducting a broader, independent investigation has been emphasized.
In turn, Pakistan strongly condemned the incident, stated its rejection of any violence directed at human life, and expressed readiness for the event to be investigated with the participation of objective international observers. Islamabad’s call reflects its stance as a respon
sible partner, emphasizing the use of diplomatic tools for regional stability.
Following the recent incident, a new phase of escalation has been observed in India-Pakistan relations. India has declared several Pakistani diplomats “persona non grata” and expelled them from the country. Additionally, India has suspended the existing visa regime between the two nations and announced that the implementation of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty will be reconsidered. While these actions are presented as India’s response measures, they pose potential risks in terms of water resources and the humanitarian situation in the region.
In retaliation, Pakistan has closed its airspace to Indian aircraft and initiated a process of reevaluating its commitments under the 1972 Shimla Agreement. Islamabad has stated that these measures are defensive in nature, aimed at protecting the country’s sovereignty and national security. The rising tension could have dangerous consequences not only for the two countries but for the entire So
uth Asian region. The harsh rhetoric and reciprocal actions increase the likelihood of a new military confrontation. The resumption of diplomatic talks for resolving the conflict and addressing the Kashmir issue is critical to ensuring regional stability and security.
APA has gathered the views of experts from both countries regarding the current tension. Muhammad Asif Noor, Director of the Centre for Central Asia and Eurasian Studies at the Pakistan Institute of Peace and Diplomatic Studies, told APA that the increasing tension is accompanied by diplomatic isolation and a rise in war rhetoric. He criticized India’s swift allegations and the absence of evidence, suggesting that the incident was integrated into New Delhi’s political framework to create a specific narrative rather than clarify the facts.
Burzine Waghmar, a member of the SOAS South Asia Institute, emphasized that Pakistan has long been conducting covert operations against India, particularly in the Jammu and Kashmir region. He highlighted that
India’s recent accusations may seem direct but ignore Pakistan’s history of actions against India.
Muhammad Asif Noor also commented on the approach of major powers to the Kashmir issue, noting that countries like the United States, China, and Gulf nations adopt a cautious stance, each basing their diplomatic positions on regional interests. He emphasized that while international players refrain from direct intervention, their strategic interests often influence their stance on the matter.
Burzine Waghmar also discussed the positions of other states, particularly Iran’s involvement, suggesting that Tehran has shown tacit support for Pakistan on the Kashmir issue historically.
Both experts addressed whether the tension could escalate into a full-scale war. Muhammad Asif Noor stated that while the risk of full-scale war is low, strategic strikes remain a possibility due to the lack of dialogue and institutional channels. Burzine Waghmar expressed that neither side can afford a full-scale war, particularly Pa
kistan, due to economic constraints.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s influence has significantly decreased within the country recently. Modi is using the latest incident to boost his ratings as he prepares for the 2027 presidential elections, similar to his strategy in 2019.
Burzine Waghmar clarified that Modi is not attempting to capitalize on creating tension with Pakistan. Instead, India’s refusal to engage with Pakistan is rooted in past incidents like the airstrikes of 2019 and the 2008 Mumbai attacks, with Indian representatives suggesting that Pakistan seeks to draw attention, necessitating decisive action from India.