Baku: Global Solar PV and Battery Manufacturing Dominance by China Poses Elevated Disruption Risks

According to Trend News Agency, Tim Gould, the Chief Energy Economist at the International Energy Agency (IEA), highlighted significant risks posed by China’s dominance in solar PV and battery manufacturing during his speech at the World Energy Outlook 2024. Gould emphasized the vulnerability of global energy supply chains due to the concentration of manufacturing capacities in a single country, underscoring the potential for disruptions arising from geopolitical tensions, extreme weather events, or industrial accidents.

Gould elaborated on the shifting dynamics in the global energy market, noting a new market context characterized by an ample supply and potential downward pressure on prices. Despite these factors, he warned against complacency regarding energy security. “We certainly won’t be taking our eyes off potential risks to energy security here at the IEA,” Gould stated, affirming the agency’s vigilanc
e in monitoring emerging threats.

Over the past decade, global oil demand has increased by more than 5 million barrels a day, primarily driven by China’s demand in sectors such as road transport and petrochemicals. However, Gould pointed out that this trend is evolving as China increasingly adopts electric vehicles (EVs) and shifts to liquefied natural gas (LNG) for trucks. He projected significant changes in global energy consumption patterns, with EV sales expected to reach 17 million units this year, over 10 million of which are anticipated to be in China alone. Looking ahead to 2035, Gould suggested that demand in other countries is likely to rise under current policy settings, indicating a diversification of growth drivers beyond China.