Baku:Fitch Ratings has maintained its oil price forecast for 2026 at $87 per barrel, while increasing its 2027 forecast by $5 to $70 per barrel. This announcement was made by Jakub Zasada, EMEA Director for Corporate Ratings at Fitch Ratings, during the 'Fitch in Azerbaijan' event.
According to Azeri-Press news agency, Fitch set its 2026 price assumption at $87 per barrel earlier this year and has not altered it despite recent high market volatility. Zasada noted that oil prices had sharply declined to around $70 per barrel in mid-June, influenced by a memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States, alongside a restoration of oil flows to about 75% of pre-war levels.
However, this downward trend was short-lived. Military operations resumed in July, followed by September attacks on Saudi Arabian infrastructure, causing oil prices to rise above $100 per barrel. The importance of continued oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz was emphasized, with Zasada highlighting the strait's volatile situation as crucial to the global market.
Fitch anticipates the United States and Middle Eastern countries will ensure the transportation of at least 10 million barrels of oil per day. Saudi Arabia's capacity to export approximately 5 million barrels per day through the East-West pipeline is also seen as vital for maintaining global supply.
The agency forecasts global oil supply to reach around 107 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, with demand at about 104 million barrels per day, resulting in supply exceeding demand. The increase in supply is expected to primarily originate from non-OPEC producers such as the United States, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina, with additional production estimated at 1.5 million barrels per day this year and an extra 1 million barrels next year.
Zasada pointed out a significant decline in global oil demand in the second quarter, with expectations that demand will be lower than the previous year but will gradually return to 104 million barrels per day and higher by 2027.